With Thanksgiving lower than three weeks away, the query of how a lot this yr’s turkey and trimmings will price looms giant, particularly with grocery costs 2.7% increased than they have been in 2024.

President Donald Trump has claimed over the previous two days that prices for the Thanksgiving meal are down 25% this yr, citing a prepackaged Thanksgiving meal basket from Walmart.

“I simply noticed that Walmart got here out with an announcement final night time, they’ve carried out it for a few years, that Thanksgiving this yr will price 25% lower than Thanksgiving final yr,” he stated throughout a information convention on Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

However Trump’s numbers are off. Here is a better have a look at the information.

CLAIM: Walmart costs present that the price of Thanksgiving dinner is 25% decrease in 2025 than in 2024.

THE FACTS: That is deceptive. Whereas Walmart’s 2025 meal basket prices about 25% lower than the one from 2024, that is as a result of it affords fewer gadgets and totally different merchandise that make it extra inexpensive.

“It is not apples to apples, proper?” stated David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M College. “What this does spotlight is particular person retailers’ methods for getting clients within the door.”

The 2025 basket prices lower than $40 and feeds 10 individuals, about $4 a head, in response to Walmart. In 2024, a basket for eight price roughly $56, lower than $7 per individual. That is a few 25% lower, probably extra relying on value fluctuations. John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S., touted the financial savings in a LinkedIn publish final month.

However the baskets differ considerably. For instance, this yr’s contains simply 15 gadgets in comparison with final yr’s 29. It’s lacking many dessert gadgets, together with a pecan pie, mini marshmallows and muffin combine, in addition to savory gadgets equivalent to candy potatoes, yellow onions and celery stalks.

The superstore retailer has additionally substituted some merchandise. As an alternative of 12 candy Hawaiian rolls, the 2025 deal contains 12 dinner rolls. Each are from Walmart’s retailer model. It additionally affords Kinder’s crispy fried onions versus French’s.

Plus, the quantity of every merchandise varies. Clients have been promised a 10-16 pound turkey in 2024, however a 13.5 pound one this yr. They usually’ll get one can of cream of mushroom soup as an alternative of two.

“They’re advertising it that ‘hey, this can be a extra inexpensive method,’ but that means that ‘man, stuff’s much more costly,’” Anderson stated. “I assume it is good advertising.”

A Thursday press launch from the White Home additionally cited cheaper Thanksgiving offers at Lidl’s, Aldi’s, Goal and Schnucks.

Goal’s four-person meal prices lower than $20, about the identical as in 2024, however substitutes inexperienced beans and cream of mushroom soup for French bread and frozen corn — additionally not an apples-to-apples comparability.

Schnucks offered The Related Press with a press launch saying the retailer is providing shoppers its lowest value on a frozen store-brand turkey in over 15 years. It declined additional remark. Lidl US stated it’s providing its Thanksgiving meal on the lowest ever value and Aldi stated its value was decrease than 2024. Goal and Walmart didn’t remark.

In response to a latest report from Wells Fargo, the price of a 10-person Thanksgiving meal has fallen 2% to three% since 2024, relying partly on whether or not clients go for nationwide title manufacturers or cheaper retailer labels. The White Home press launch additionally cited this report.

Some economists have considerations in regards to the value of turkey. Purdue College’s Faculty of Agriculture reported on the finish of October that wholesale costs are up 75% since October 2024, whereas retail costs are 25% increased than a yr in the past.

An earlier evaluation from the American Farm Bureau Federation discovered that wholesale turkey costs have been up about 40%.

And but, that doesn’t imply each fowl will probably be pricier in 2025. Anderson defined that as a result of sure retailers, equivalent to Walmart, contract their turkeys nicely prematurely, the worth for patrons is likely to be a lot decrease than the market at present signifies.

“That offers them the pliability to run these varieties of specials,” he stated.

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